The official figures of those affected by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic continue to increase in the Valencian Community - yesterday nine more deaths, six in Alicante and three in Valencia, and another 184 new positives - and it seems that the trend will continue being the same at least for the entire next week and even early the next.
These are the dates on which the peak of the epidemic could occur, as predicted yesterday for the first time by the Minister of Health, Ana Barceló, citing sources from the Ministry of Health. From now to then, if the forecasts of the government specialists are fulfilled, the total number of positives will not stop rising.
For now, the daily number of new positive cases remains high and today has exceeded the 216 registered on March 15, with 258 new infections. It has contributed notably to the fact that during the whole week, the slightest cases are not being tested or accounted for and that they remain directly isolated in their homes following orders from the Ministry of Health.
Hence, all the new cases that are being registered, 258 today, are among the most complicated, which has a direct reflection on the numbers of hospitalized and people in the ICU. According to official data, yesterday there were 378 people hospitalized, 26% more than the day before and, of them, there are 71 serious in any ICU, 20% more than the day before: eleven more people in Valencia and one in Castelló .
In fact, with the latest data update, the Valencian Community presents a balance that could be contradictory: it remains with a low incidence of the disease and is among the least affected regions in relation to its number of inhabitants but, on the other hand, it is and the second in number of seriously ill patients in the ICU, only behind the Madrid region, where they already have 678 people in intensive care.
The explanation lies in the lack of detection and registration of the mildest cases and the existence of two large outbreaks in two nursing homes, the most vulnerable group, and which requires taking hospitalization or even intensive care measures much earlier.
Barceló tempered yesterday by recalling that the Valencian system still has a lung to welcome patients, more or less serious, and that measures had not yet been implemented here to select who could enter the ICU and who could not, as is already being done in some Madrid hospital of the most collapsed.
In the coming days and as soon as the new protocol is implemented to retest the Covid-19 in all cases, even if they have mild symptoms, it is expected that the cases will increase with greater intensity but the percentage of severe cases will be lower and more similar to the data recorded in China: of all the infected, 80% had mild symptoms, 15% needed hospitalization and 5% were severe cases. Now, ICU cases are 6.4% of all positives.